McCloskey: After Nov. 5, we’re all in this together

Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning News, October 27, 2024

The number of days until the presidential election is almost down to single digits. National polls show the candidates neck-and-neck, or with former President Donald Trump having a slight lead. The Republican nominee is also ahead in the betting markets. The website 538 is running election simulations. On Friday, it reported that Trump won 528 out of 1,000 simulations.

I have something to add to the mix that hasn’t received the attention it deserves. For the first time this century, a larger share of Americans identify as Republicans than as Democrats. According to Gallup, 48% of the electorate is or leans Republican whereas 45% is or leans Democratic. This hasn’t happened in decades.

More of the electorate (46%) believes that the Republican Party can handle the nation’s top challenges relative to the Democratic Party (41%) with special attention to immigration and the economy. These trends, combined with an underestimation of Republican strength in the last two presidential cycles, lean in Trump’s favor.

Which raises the question of what happens if Trump wins.

I was recently interviewed on a podcast hosted by Steve Schmidt, founder of the embroiled Lincoln Project and an outspoken Trump critic. I’m no fan of Trump myself. But reading the comments after the podcast, I was reminded that many people have forgotten that after the election we will still be living in this huge diverse country together. That’s getting harder to do the more we demonize the other side, saying things like “a sane Trump voter is an oxymoron,” as one person in my Twitter feed did.

It’s not just Democrats saying bad things about Republicans. Both sides are turning up the temperature, seemingly convinced that the end goal is domination and humiliation instead of compromise and accommodation. History is replete with the former; the latter is the greatness of America.

Should Vice President Kamala Harris lose on Nov. 5, I expect she will accept the terms as has been the norm throughout American history. Should Trump lose, there is a risk that he won’t concede, the same way he’s refused to acknowledge that he lost the 2020 election.

This is deeply problematic; a fundamental plank of American democracy has been loosened. Foreign adversaries will be more than happy to add to the chaos with social media posts intended to conflict with official government records and prolong any period of confusion.

We need a statesman and leader who understands what happens if distrust is further inflamed. We have so much to lose. If the outcome is disputed, evidence should be assembled and clearly and persuasively argued in our courts. Then, it’s time to move on…..

PODCAST: What Makes Donald Trump Appealing To Voters | A Conversation with Abby McCloskey

Abby McCloskey, The Warning with Steve Schmidt, October 18, 2024

Steve Schmidt sits down with Abby McCloskey, author and host of the "Beyond: Talking Points" podcast, to talk Trump's base and how this election could wrap up. Subscribe for more and follow me here: Substack: https://steveschmidt.substack.com/subscribe Twitter: https://twitter.com/SteveSchmidtSES Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SteveSchmidtSES/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thewarningses Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thewarningses/

Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning News, October 20, 2024

“Most of my political life has been spent in the GOP. While I’ve worked on many bipartisan projects over the years and have even advised a Democrat candidate running for president as an independent, I’d still put myself squarely in a center-right economic camp.

I got my policy chops as a member of the economics policy team of the American Enterprise Institute. Friedrich Hayek’s The Road to Serfdom is one of my favorite books. I believe that economic freedom — by which I mean a relatively low level of regulation and taxation and sustainable budget outlook — unleashes the economy and persons to flourish and grow.

As long as I’ve been alive, the Republican Party has been the party committed to a limited government and a free economy. Voters have seen this too. For more than a decade, the GOP has consistently held an advantage for being the party entrusted with economic prosperity.

It was in this spirit that I wrote a National Affairs essay, “Beyond Growth,” during Donald Trump’s first presidential term. I wrote how the previous two years had been some of the best in memory from the standpoint of job creation, GDP growth and the stock market. I credited Trump with some of this growth, in terms of his regulatory restraint — eliminating two regulations for every new one introduced — and tax policy (although his tax cuts should have been paid for).

But the nature of my essay was to encourage Republicans (and Donald Trump) to go beyond growth. It was — and remains today — my belief that too many people have been excluded from the American economy for immigration status, low wages, criminal records that are difficult to expunge, a defunct educational system or lack of support for working parents.

I wrote about how more support should be given to our most vulnerable members of society. I very much subscribe to Nobel Prize winner Edmund Phelps’ philosophy, presented in his magisterial book Mass Flourishing: How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge, and Change, that humans are at their best when they are allowed to create and innovate without unnecessary structural barriers or an oppressive government thumb pushing them down. While Democrats often get the rhetoric around an inclusive economy right, their policies don’t get there because they’re too heavy-handed.

I say this as a long-winded introduction to my readers who might still assume, as has long been the case, that the Republican Party is still the party of economic growth.

This is not the Trump economic agenda of 2024. It is nowhere close.

Nonpartisan economic estimates from Goldman Sachs to Moody’s anticipate a significant economic contraction should Trump win the presidency. For those who immediately discount this as elite liberal cahoots, these organizations projected an early economic rally in Trump’s first term.

Trump’s promises for massive tariffs on imports and mass deportations are a recipe for a weaker economy. That’s because an economy grows on labor and capital, and his agenda restricts both. His economic platform will eat away at wages and raise costs, which always tends to disproportionately impact lower-income households that don’t have economic margin to spare. Trump’s promise to protect Social Security without making necessary reforms to preserve its solvency is also a drag on growth…..”

Next president will face a dangerous world

Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning News, October 13, 2024

“In our household, there’s a division of labor. I handle domestic policy. My husband, a former CIA officer, handles foreign policy.

But it doesn’t take a stint in the world’s leading spy agency to see an era of international chaos, one that either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will inherit as the leader of the free world.

In traditional candidate briefings on foreign policy, the briefer does a “walk around the world” of global hotspots. The conversation tends to end up focusing on a singular region or conflict. Now, it’s everywhere at once.

Consider what has happened in the last two years. On Feb. 24, 2022, Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine; the war is ongoing two and a half years later. One million people are dead or injured. Few believe that Ukraine is the end goal of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s territorial conquest, but rather that his ambitions extend toward some of our NATO allies. Meanwhile, Russia continues to meddle in U.S. elections and spread disinformation. . . . “

Roe is gone but abortion is still central this election

Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning News, October 8, 2024

“This is the first presidential election since Roe vs. Wade was overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2022. Instead of fading into the background, abortion is front and center.

Vice President Kamala Harris is running on restoring abortion rights. “I think we should eliminate the filibuster for Roe and get us to the point where 51 votes would be what we need to actually put back in law the protections for reproductive freedom,” she told Wisconsin Public Radio.

Listening to her campaign, you’d have little idea that four in 10 Americans are pro-lifers, according to Gallup, or that only a minority of Americans (35%) support legal abortion without restrictions.

On most issues, former President Donald Trump is the polar opposite of Harris. When it comes to abortion, it’s less clear. The Supreme Court justices Trump appointed were in large part responsible for the overturning of Roe, but he is now moving in the opposite direction.

“My administration will be great for women and their reproductive rights,” Trump recently declared on Truth Social. This is not a one-off slip. Long-standing pro-life language in the Republican platform was removed this summer, and Trump has spoken out against the heartbeat law in his home state of Florida.

Let me just say: Having something so big, so life changing, decided by politicians who are always changing their minds feels deeply unsettling, no matter which side of the issue you sit on….”

McCloskey: The press needs to earn back our trust … and fast

Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning News, September 30, 2024

You know that old cartoon with Wile E. Coyote and the Road Runner? In nearly every episode, Coyote runs off of a cliff and continues running in the air. Then the music stops, and he freefalls with a whistle and a crash. That’s what trust in the press looks like these days. It’s not good for democracy.

In the mid-1970s, almost three-quarters of Americans had a great deal or fair amount of trust in media, including newspapers, TV and radio, according to Gallup. By 2016, that number had flipped. Less than a third of Americans trust the press this election cycle — a historic low.

It seems like we are living through the most dramatic transformation in the press in history, save for perhaps the printing press. It has happened subtly and quickly, like the ground coming out from under Coyote’s feet…..

The Hope of the Church in 2024

Abby McCloskey, the Anglican Mission in America, September 23, 2024

here are plenty of reasons to be discouraged about American politics in 2024. Lest you need reminders, here are a few: Political polarization is at levels not seen since the Civil War. According to Pew Research, 72% of Republicans regard Democrats as more immoral, and 63% of Democrats say the same about Republicans. Trust in public institutions has plummeted, with Congress at the bottom of the pile—this, at the very time that problem-solving is needed on a wide range of issues including immigration, abortion, the economy and multiplying wars overseas.

The natural response to duress of any type is flight or fight. We see this response playing out in our American political moment, including (and arguably especially) among Christians. For Christians tired out by our political moment, the “flight” response is grooved by that old Gnostic thinking that God cares only about eternal souls anyway. Nations, culture, humanity’s suffering or history’s arc are of little relevance to his work; it’s heaven that lasts. Under this belief, Christians may be tempted to isolate themselves in communities of similarly minded people and ride out an increasingly secularized and disoriented culture from a distance. Political scientists talk about this group as the “Exhausted Majority,” tuning out from politics all together. Among Christians, we might say it is Rod Dreher’s Benedict Option, a strategic separation of believers from public life.

For others, the “fight” response might be more alluring. The temptation to grab political powers and usher in a Christian nation has titillated since Constantine. Certainly today, many Christians are biting at the bit for political dominance and revenge for the secular progressive enemies who discredit and discriminate against Judeo-Christian values and beliefs. There’s a belief that our country would be better off with Christianity consecrated in the halls of political power and for Christianity to once again become the dominant religion (as opposed to the swelling ranks of religious nones) via political action. Among evangelical Christians, this group is concentrated in MAGA, as documented in Tim Alberta’s The Kingdom, The Power, and The Glory.

Far from new political responses, these are the oldest there are. They are right there on display in the Bible. Ancient Jewish belief was awash in the expectation—from the Torah to the manger—that the coming Messiah would overthrow the system of government and usher in a new kingdom. Instead, Christ was executed at the hands of the Romans, while not ruling out that he was a political leader (“You say that I am <King of the Jews>,” he says to Pilate). After the execution and scattering of nearly all of Jesus’ disciples and the invasion of Jerusalem and raiding of the temple, the early Church surely would have been tempted to run for the hills. Yet the records of the early Church as preserved by Larry Hurtado and Rodney Stark document a community rooted in pagan cities and loving its neighbors through the power of the Holy Spirit.

From Jesus’ life and the early Church, we see a rejection of the twofold temptation to fight the powers or to flee from them. These responses elevate political power, rather than recognizing that there’s another power to which all others submit. Nor do we see a middle way or political compromise in the Bible. The Christian answer to politics is far more radical. It’s a new creation altogether. . . .

Is America a Christian nation? It's complicated

Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning News, September 22, 2024

“There’s a lot of confusion right now about how church and state relate in America, and it’s center stage this presidential election cycle. Even the pope is getting involved. This month, Pope Francis advised Catholics to choose the lesser of two evils in the voting booth, though he didn’t make clear which candidate fits that bill.

According to Pew Research, almost half of Americans believe that the U.S. should be a Christian nation, while two-thirds believe that the church should stay out of politics. (Close readers will note the clang of discord in those numbers.) . . . “

McCloskey: Don’t listen to candidate make-believe

Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning News, September 16, 2024

Our presidential candidates are promising to spend money on all kinds of goodies. Former President Donald Trump has floated a baby bonus, historic levels of border security and more tax cuts, including ending taxes on Social Security and tips. Vice President Kamala Harris is promising five-digit housing credits, a ramped-up Child Tax Credit, small business tax credits and more clean energy investments.

Nonpartisan estimates for both candidates’ promises range in the trillions, which is not to say that all of these are bad ideas. Far from it. But I’ve heard much less about how to pay for this new spending or the drops in revenue from tax cuts. And as they say in economics, there’s no free lunch.

Now, to be sure, I’ve heard about some unicorn pay-fors, and by unicorn I mean make-believe. For example, massive income and wealth taxes on the rich will take care of it. Or tariffs will boost domestic production and raise wages and because of baby bonuses people will have more babies and we’ll grow our way out.

My 3-year-old daughter loves unicorns, especially pink sparkly ones. I recently learned on a trip to England that unicorns are a symbol of Scotland, where my ancestors came from, so now I’m on the unicorn bandwagon too. But there are not real unicorn pay-fors in the economy. More spending or less taxes comes with tradeoffs — tradeoffs that for too long our politicians have not been forthright about. . . .

Can Harris and Trump get serious about immigration policy?

Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning News, September 10, 2024

For nearly half a century, Gallup has asked American voters their opinion about the biggest challenge facing the country. This year, immigration tops the charts.

Depending on whom you talk to and where you get your news, immigration is the reason Americans’ wages are low and our economy is resilient, or it’s a national security threat and a source of our national strength. It’s the reason you are voting for Trump or the reason you never would.

The campaigns have their flash-in-the-pan, finger-in-the-air talking points ready. On Trump’s campaign website, the first two issues are, and I quote “1) Seal the border and stop the migrant invasion, 2) Carry out the largest deportation operation in American history.”

We know less about Harris. But in her DNC acceptance speech, she promised to “bring back the bipartisan border security bill that [Donald Trump] killed.”

What lies beyond the talking points is less clear. For example, there’s confusion as to whether Trump’s “mass deportation” is an empty slogan (like Mexico paying for the border wall, which it did not) or more or less a continuance of existing U.S. policy to deport felons and continue apprehensions at the border.

Or if “mass deportation” is actually what it sounds like: militarized, door-to-door raids of largely Hispanic communities where many immigrants have children who are citizens, have been living here peacefully for decades, and are suddenly rounded up in buses or sent to detention camps or dropped off in a different country, maybe one they are not even from.

This would result in an economic shock, not to mention a humanitarian crisis. On this, we’ve had our first deposit: More than 1,000 children remain separated from their parents following the atrocious parent-child separation at the border during the Trump administration. . . .

Accountability for screen time in Dallas schools should go both ways

Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning News, August 25, 2024

“As a writer, the problem of children and screen time is the gift that keeps giving columns. As a mother of three school-age kids, I find it exhausting.

Understanding and monitoring screen use in public schools feels like a game of Whac-A-Mole. It’s smartphones. It’s smartwatches. It’s universal iPads in kinder. It’s personal Chromebooks for third grade.

School is in full swing and my elementary school child brought home a “Chromebook contract.” I was struck about how one-way it felt. Where was the second page stapled onto the first that had a similar contract from the teacher, school and district? Accountability and trust with kids’ use of technology needs to run both ways. Especially when the research is piling up about the harm of screen overuse at home but also in the classroom.

In my column, I write about what a more two-way contract from the school could look like....

Do Harris and Trump want to save the country or not?

Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning News, August 15, 2024

“If this presidential election is “apocalyptic,” you wouldn’t know it by how the campaigns are acting.

“They’re not after me. They’re after you. I’m just standing in the way.” This is the quote at the top of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign website with a picture of him standing in front of Air Force One.

He’s not holding his bloody ear, but somehow the fear evoked isn’t about our international adversaries; it’s that our fellow citizens are coming for us.

This mimics much of the messaging on the political left. There’s a widely held belief (in the middle too, by the way) that Trump and his allies are a threat to democracy and the peaceful transfer of power. The Democrat ticket is the only thing standing in between America and mob-run dictatorship.

You would think that with such existential threats knocking at America’s door, the presidential campaigns would be swooping up the middle, the uncommitted, the exhausted, the normal people to protect them from what’s coming — to steady the country around its sturdy center with large coalitions and broad-based alliances and compromises.

Instead, Trump and Harris are running away from the middle. In a twisted way, each one allows the other to do so. “

New school technology policy makes this mom happy

Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning News, August 11, 2024

“You wouldn’t know it from the heat, but summer is over. School begins Monday in Dallas ISD, and this year school has a new twist (at least in some parts of our city).

As a mother of three young children, I find the start of school to be bittersweet. As my priest said at my wedding rehearsal dinner, it’s the death of something and the birth of something new.

Summer’s end is the death of weekday morning cartoons and cereal bowls, endless hours in the pool and popsicles on IV drip, nights spent up late with the couches put together for the primetime Olympics coverage, our family vacation to Montana (which I’m pleased to report rivaled my parents’ adventures when I was young).

A new school year is also the birth of a new schedule — one that sets household wakeup and bedtimes, and work, and pickups and activities. It’s the return of the kids’ everyday socialization with people aside from siblings and friends, and the welcomed return of learning. “

Texas should be second state to ban phones in schools

Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning News, July 5, 2024

“Consider the $82 billion asked for in the 2025 Department of Education Budget. With 50 million public school students across the nation, at $30 a pouch (and come on, it’s the federal government, so let’s get it down to $10), well that’s $500 million out of $82 billion — less than 1% of the budget.

Put it another way: Each year of public school costs around $10,000 per student. Hold that up against a $30 investment that could profoundly change academic, social and behavioral outcomes for students.

At the state level, Texas should ban devices on school campuses. It’s literally free; just don’t allow them. That’s what France does. That’s what several big private schools do here in Dallas. No sliding scale $5 punishments. First offense is parent pickup. The next offense, the device is taken away for keeps.

Newsom is getting pushback. The biggest, best I can tell, is from parents concerned with what to do about children in an emergency . . . “

My parents knew how to take a family summer trip

Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning New, June 30, 2024

“You know that a family vacation is only a vacation if there’s no family save your spouse, right? Anything with children (or elderly parents) is a family trip. Let me tell you, my parents mastered the art of the family trip.

I pulled my first all-nighter at the tender age of 5 on one such trip. Each summer in Cleveland, it wouldn’t quite get hot enough nor would Lake Erie get quite clean enough, and so Mom and Dad would load up in the green Dodge Caravan with my two little sisters and me and we’d go to Hilton Head, South Carolina. It was a 12-hour drive with no stops and the speed limit being pushed.”

On Dobbs anniversary, red states have made progress, but more is needed

Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning New, June 24, 2024

At a minimum, I would love to see Texas begin a Department of Child and Family Flourishing wherein more dollars would flow to families; where philanthropy and the private sector could share best practices and pool resources; where policymakers could have access to more frequent data on the well-being of young children and parents in our state; and where pilots of all types to improve child poverty and maternal and infant health would be encouraged.

Right now, red states can use permissive abortion policies in blue states to distract from the need to care for mothers and babies. Most blue states have robust services for women and children and yet seem proud of their few limitations on abortion, even after the point where a fetus can feel pain. President Joe Biden seems to think that because I find Trump dangerous, then I must be all in for abortion on demand. The extremes of both sides act as a safety net for the other.

I’m reminded of that old G.K. Chesterton quote from Orthodoxy: “The modern world is full of the old Christian virtues gone mad. The virtues have gone mad because they have been isolated from each other and are wandering alone. Thus some scientists care for truth; and their truth is pitiless. Thus some humanitarians only care for pity; and their pity (I am sorry to say) is often untruthful.”

These days, conservatives are keen to emphasize justice and protection; liberals to emphasize equity and autonomy. But untethered to love and unbound from each other, we get to strange places.

And so, even with marginal progress, I am still waiting on the state that can support life and love on both sides of the womb. That is where we are on this anniversary.

Yes, surgeon general, label social media

Abby McCloskey, Dallas News, June 23, 2024

“This week, U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy wrote in The New York Times: “It is time to require a surgeon general’s warning label on social media platforms, stating that social media is associated with significant mental health harms for adolescents.” This is a fabulous idea. A bit little and late, but let’s get this train going.

We have more than a decade’s reason to act: A generation of kids who have used social media as a playground with no one telling them it was covered in poison ivy and used needles and venomous spiders and predatory adults lurking under the slides. Even if parents did warn them, well, everyone else was doing it and the itches and bites didn’t show up until a few years later and so things seemed fine until they weren’t.

The warning should be implemented immediately. Doing so is essentially free and top-down, which makes it easier than other surgeon general warnings on things like risky sex or obesity.

It might make people think twice before giving Bobby an iPhone for calling mom after Little League practice gets out. It should certainly put some pressure on schools to amp up their experiments with phone lock pouches instead of students lighting up with a Surgeon General warning item on campus. (I recently was allowed to preview a survey from a nearby school showing that teachers want phones taken from campus, parents too, but students want to keep them. I’m sure they wanted to keep the cigs too, back in the day.)

Politicians around the world have their finger to the wind. It’s blowing against Big Tech. AI seems too big to tame, so we have to take action where we can, like limiting kids’ exposure to addictive content and devices that destroy their mental health.”

Republicans have more in common with the French than they think

Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning News, June 17, 2024

“I’ve just returned from Paris, which was abuzz in preparation for the Summer Olympics. At a cafe one evening hiding from a deluge of rain, when it became obvious my French did not extend beyond bon soir, the waiter asked where I was from. “There’s a Paris in Texas,” he smirked. I can easily imagine a similar jab coming from a Texan should a Parisian come to visit: “We’ve got all the Paris we need right here, thank you very much.”

After all, France has long been regarded as the embodied vision of the American left. In Paris (you know which one), people of all ages are riding bikes with baskets down the streets, some wearing fashionable trench coats. All the cars are electric, no gas-guzzling SUVs to be found. Everyone carries reusable bags, and water-bottle caps use so little plastic they’re more akin to a flap. . . .

. . . . But on this visit to Paris, I wasn’t imagining these progressive ideas spawning similar experiments stateside. If anything, I was surprised to find three very conservative aspects of the culture I hadn’t noticed before.

For example, did you know that in many parts of France there is no school on Wednesdays? In “liberal” cases, there’s school on Wednesday mornings, but still none in the afternoons. That time is reserved for family and extracurriculars. I spoke with many mothers who have Wednesdays with their children. In the States, it tends to be conservative Christian schools that prioritize parental time over a full-time, institutionalized learning.

As a result, the French have less of the modern parental shuffling to organized activities after school with fast-food dinner in car seats. Family dinners tend to be preserved. Students also have up to an hour and a half for lunch at school the other days, during which time they can go home. In Dallas ISD, I was allowed to have lunch with my second-grader once this whole school year and never with my kindergartner.”