Abby McCloskey, Dallas Morning News, October 27, 2024
The number of days until the presidential election is almost down to single digits. National polls show the candidates neck-and-neck, or with former President Donald Trump having a slight lead. The Republican nominee is also ahead in the betting markets. The website 538 is running election simulations. On Friday, it reported that Trump won 528 out of 1,000 simulations.
I have something to add to the mix that hasn’t received the attention it deserves. For the first time this century, a larger share of Americans identify as Republicans than as Democrats. According to Gallup, 48% of the electorate is or leans Republican whereas 45% is or leans Democratic. This hasn’t happened in decades.
More of the electorate (46%) believes that the Republican Party can handle the nation’s top challenges relative to the Democratic Party (41%) with special attention to immigration and the economy. These trends, combined with an underestimation of Republican strength in the last two presidential cycles, lean in Trump’s favor.
Which raises the question of what happens if Trump wins.
I was recently interviewed on a podcast hosted by Steve Schmidt, founder of the embroiled Lincoln Project and an outspoken Trump critic. I’m no fan of Trump myself. But reading the comments after the podcast, I was reminded that many people have forgotten that after the election we will still be living in this huge diverse country together. That’s getting harder to do the more we demonize the other side, saying things like “a sane Trump voter is an oxymoron,” as one person in my Twitter feed did.
It’s not just Democrats saying bad things about Republicans. Both sides are turning up the temperature, seemingly convinced that the end goal is domination and humiliation instead of compromise and accommodation. History is replete with the former; the latter is the greatness of America.
Should Vice President Kamala Harris lose on Nov. 5, I expect she will accept the terms as has been the norm throughout American history. Should Trump lose, there is a risk that he won’t concede, the same way he’s refused to acknowledge that he lost the 2020 election.
This is deeply problematic; a fundamental plank of American democracy has been loosened. Foreign adversaries will be more than happy to add to the chaos with social media posts intended to conflict with official government records and prolong any period of confusion.
We need a statesman and leader who understands what happens if distrust is further inflamed. We have so much to lose. If the outcome is disputed, evidence should be assembled and clearly and persuasively argued in our courts. Then, it’s time to move on…..